Jim Stock's Blog: January 2021

Friday, January 29, 2021

Daniel Lewis, New York Fed

Karel Mertens, Dallas Fed

James Stock, Harvard University

The WEI is an index of 10 weekly indicators of real economic activity, scaled to have the units of four-quarter percent change of real GDP.

The WEI is currently -2.28 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ended January 23 and -1.99 percent for January 16; for reference, the WEI stood at 1.55 percent for the week ended February 29.
The decline in the WEI for the week of January 23 is due to an increase in initial unemployment insurance claims (relative to the same time last year) and decreases in tax withholding and electricity output, which more than offset rises in fuel sales and rail traffic. The WEI for the week of January 16 was revised downward due to continuing unemployment insurance claims, which while lower than the prior week, still provided a more negative signal than previously available data.
As alternative scales, the current WEI implies an 11.56 percent decrease in IP (YoY) and a 388k employee decrease in nonfarm payroll.
Data dashboard and .release (.pdf)
Historical data including recent release (.xlsx)

Daniel Lewis, New York Fed

Karel Mertens, Dallas Fed

James Stock, Harvard University

The WEI is an index of 10 weekly indicators of real economic activity, scaled to have the units of four-quarter percent change of real GDP.

The WEI is currently -1.98 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ended January 16 and -1.67 percent for January 9; for reference, the WEI stood at 1.55 percent for the week ended February 29.
The decline in the WEI for the week of January 16 (relative to the final estimate for the week of January 9) is due to an increase in initial unemployment insurance claims (relative to the same time last year) and a decrease in tax withholding, which more than offset rises in retail sales, steel production, and rail traffic. The WEI for the week of January 9 was revised upward due to an increase in the staffing index, which more than offset a rise in continuing unemployment insurance claims (relative to the same time last year).
As alternative scales, the current WEI implies a 10.66 percent decrease in IP (YoY) and a 351k employee decrease in nonfarm payroll.
Data dashboard and .release (.pdf)
Historical data including recent release (.xlsx)

Daniel Lewis, New York Fed

Karel Mertens, Dallas Fed

James Stock, Harvard University

The WEI is an index of 10 weekly indicators of real economic activity, scaled to have the units of four-quarter percent change of real GDP.

The WEI is currently -1.70 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ended January 9 and -1.90 percent for January 2; for reference, the WEI stood at 1.55 percent for the week ended February 29.
The increase in the WEI for the week of January 9 is due to rises in tax withholding, fuel sales, and rail traffic, which more than offset an increase in initial unemployment insurance claims and a decrease in electricity output (relative to the same time last year). The WEI for the week of January 2 was revised downward due to an increase in continuing unemployment insurance claims.
As alternative scales, the current WEI implies a 9.81 percent decrease in IP (YoY) and a 317k employee decrease in nonfarm payroll.
Data dashboard and .release (.pdf)
Historical data including recent release (.xlsx)