Thursday, March 11, 2021

 

Weekly Economic Index (WEI)

March 11, 2021

 

Daniel Lewis, New York Fed
Karel Mertens, Dallas Fed
James Stock, Harvard University

The WEI is an index of 10 weekly indicators of real economic activity, scaled to have the units of four-quarter percent change of real GDP.
 


  • The WEI is currently -1.57 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ended March 6 and -1.55 percent for February 27; for reference, the WEI stood at 1.55 percent for the week ended February 29, 2020.
  • The decline in the WEI for the week of March 6 is due to an increase in initial unemployment insurance claims (relative to the same time last year), which more than offset rises in tax withholding, fuel sales, rail traffic, and electricity output (relative to the same time last year). The WEI for the week of February 27 was revised downward due to continuing unemployment insurance claims, which while lower than the prior week, still provided a more negative signal than previously available data.
  • As alternative scales, the current WEI implies a 9.41 percent decrease in IP (YoY) and a 300k employee decrease in nonfarm payroll.
  • Data dashboard and .release (.pdf)
  • Historical data including recent release (.xlsx)
 

Thursday, March 4, 2021

 

Weekly Economic Index (WEI)

March 4, 2021

 

Daniel Lewis, New York Fed
Karel Mertens, Dallas Fed
James Stock, Harvard University

The WEI is an index of 10 weekly indicators of real economic activity, scaled to have the units of four-quarter percent change of real GDP.

  • The WEI is currently -2.28 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ended February 27 and -2.65 percent for February 20; for reference, the WEI stood at 1.55 percent for the week ended February 29, 2020.
  • The increase in the WEI for the week of February 27 is due to a decrease in initial unemployment insurance claims (relative to the same time last year) and rises in fuel sales and rail traffic, which more than offset declines in tax withholding and electricity output. The WEI for the week of February 20 was revised downward due to continuing unemployment insurance claims, which while lower than the prior week, still provided a more negative signal than previously available data.
  • As alternative scales, the current WEI implies an 11.57 percent decrease in IP (YoY) and a 387k employee decrease in nonfarm payroll.
  • Data dashboard and .release (.pdf)
  • Historical data including recent release (.xlsx)
 
 
 
 

Monday, February 22, 2021

 

Weekly Economic Index (WEI)

February 18, 2021

 

Daniel Lewis, New York Fed
Karel Mertens, Dallas Fed
James Stock, Harvard University

The WEI is an index of 10 weekly indicators of real economic activity, scaled to have the units of four-quarter percent change of real GDP.

  • The WEI is currently -2.31 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ended February 13 and -1.98 percent for February 6; for reference, the WEI stood at 1.55 percent for the week ended February 29.
  • The decline in the WEI for the week of February 13 is due to an increase in initial unemployment insurance claims (relative to the same time last year) and a decrease in rail traffic, which more than offset increases in retail sales and tax withholding. The WEI for the week of February 6 was revised upward due to a fall in continuing unemployment insurance claims, which more than offset a decline in the staffing index.
  • As alternative scales, the current WEI implies an 11.65 percent decrease in IP (YoY) and a 391k employee decrease in nonfarm payroll.
  • Data dashboard and .release (.pdf)
  • Historical data including recent release (.xlsx)
 
 
 

Friday, February 12, 2021

 

Weekly Economic Index (WEI)

February 11, 2021

 

Daniel Lewis, New York Fed
Karel Mertens, Dallas Fed
James Stock, Harvard University

The WEI is an index of 10 weekly indicators of real economic activity, scaled to have the units of four-quarter percent change of real GDP.

  • The WEI is currently -2.25 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ended February 6 and -1.87 percent for January 30; for reference, the WEI stood at 1.55 percent for the week ended February 29.
  • The decline in the WEI for the week of February 6 is due to a decrease in tax withholding, which more than offset a fall in initial unemployment insurance claims and increases in fuel sales, electricity output, and rail traffic (relative to the same time last year). The WEI for the week of January 30 was revised downward due to continuing unemployment insurance claims, which while lower than the prior week, still provided a more negative signal than previously available data.
  • As alternative scales, the current WEI implies an 11.48 percent decrease in IP (YoY) and a 384k employee decrease in nonfarm payroll.
  • Data dashboard and .release (.pdf)
  • Historical data including recent release (.xlsx)
 
 

Thursday, February 4, 2021

 

Weekly Economic Index (WEI)

February 4, 2021

 

Daniel Lewis, New York Fed
Karel Mertens, Dallas Fed
James Stock, Harvard University

The WEI is an index of 10 weekly indicators of real economic activity, scaled to have the units of four-quarter percent change of real GDP.


  • The WEI is currently -2.27 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ended January 30 and -1.86 percent for January 23; for reference, the WEI stood at 1.55 percent for the week ended February 29.
  • The decline in the WEI for the week of January 30 is due to decreases in fuel sales and rail traffic, which more than offset a fall in initial unemployment insurance claims and increases in electricity output and tax withholding. The WEI for the week of January 23 was revised downward due to continuing unemployment insurance claims, which while lower than the prior week, still provided a more negative signal than previously available data.
  • As alternative scales, the current WEI implies an 11.54 percent decrease in IP (YoY) and a 387k employee decrease in nonfarm payroll.
  • Data dashboard and .release (.pdf)
  • Historical data including recent release (.xlsx)
 
 
 

Friday, January 29, 2021

 

Weekly Economic Index (WEI)

January 28 2021

 

Daniel Lewis, New York Fed
Karel Mertens, Dallas Fed
James Stock, Harvard University

The WEI is an index of 10 weekly indicators of real economic activity, scaled to have the units of four-quarter percent change of real GDP.

  • The WEI is currently -2.28 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ended January 23 and -1.99 percent for January 16; for reference, the WEI stood at 1.55 percent for the week ended February 29.
  • The decline in the WEI for the week of January 23 is due to an increase in initial unemployment insurance claims (relative to the same time last year) and decreases in tax withholding and electricity output, which more than offset rises in fuel sales and rail traffic. The WEI for the week of January 16 was revised downward due to continuing unemployment insurance claims, which while lower than the prior week, still provided a more negative signal than previously available data.
  • As alternative scales, the current WEI implies an 11.56 percent decrease in IP (YoY) and a 388k employee decrease in nonfarm payroll.
  • Data dashboard and .release (.pdf)
  • Historical data including recent release (.xlsx)
 
 
 

Thursday, January 21, 2021

 

Weekly Economic Index (WEI)

January 21 2021

 

Daniel Lewis, New York Fed
Karel Mertens, Dallas Fed
James Stock, Harvard University

The WEI is an index of 10 weekly indicators of real economic activity, scaled to have the units of four-quarter percent change of real GDP.

  • The WEI is currently -1.98 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ended January 16 and -1.67 percent for January 9; for reference, the WEI stood at 1.55 percent for the week ended February 29.
  • The decline in the WEI for the week of January 16 (relative to the final estimate for the week of January 9) is due to an increase in initial unemployment insurance claims (relative to the same time last year) and a decrease in tax withholding, which more than offset rises in retail sales, steel production, and rail traffic. The WEI for the week of January 9 was revised upward due to an increase in the staffing index, which more than offset a rise in continuing unemployment insurance claims (relative to the same time last year).
  • As alternative scales, the current WEI implies a 10.66 percent decrease in IP (YoY) and a 351k employee decrease in nonfarm payroll.
  • Data dashboard and .release (.pdf)
  • Historical data including recent release (.xlsx)
 
 

Thursday, January 14, 2021

 

Weekly Economic Index (WEI)

January 14 2021

 

Daniel Lewis, New York Fed
Karel Mertens, Dallas Fed
James Stock, Harvard University

The WEI is an index of 10 weekly indicators of real economic activity, scaled to have the units of four-quarter percent change of real GDP.


  •  The WEI is currently -1.70 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ended January 9 and -1.90 percent for January 2; for reference, the WEI stood at 1.55 percent for the week ended February 29.
  • The increase in the WEI for the week of January 9 is due to rises in tax withholding, fuel sales, and rail traffic, which more than offset an increase in initial unemployment insurance claims and a decrease in electricity output (relative to the same time last year). The WEI for the week of January 2 was revised downward due to an increase in continuing unemployment insurance claims.
  • As alternative scales, the current WEI implies a 9.81 percent decrease in IP (YoY) and a 317k employee decrease in nonfarm payroll.
  • Data dashboard and .release (.pdf)
  • Historical data including recent release (.xlsx)