Weekly Economic Index (WEI)

October 29, 2020

 

Daniel Lewis, New York Fed

Karel Mertens, Dallas Fed

James Stock, Harvard University

The WEI is an index of 10 weekly indicators of real economic activity, scaled to have the units of four-quarter percent change of real GDP.

 

• The WEI is currently -3.32 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ended October 24 and -4.01 percent for October 17; for reference, the WEI stood at 1.55 percent for the week ended February 29.
• The increase in the WEI for the week of October 24 was due to a decrease in initial unemployment insurance claims and increases in fuel sales and tax withholding, which more than offset decreases in electricity output and rail traffic (relative to the same time last year). The WEI for the week of October 24 was revised downward due to continuing unemployment insurance claims, which while lower than the prior week, still provided a more negative signal than previously available data.
• As alternative scales, the current WEI implies a 14.73 percent decrease in IP (YoY) and a 516k employee decrease in nonfarm payroll.
• Data dashboard and .release (.pdf)
• Historical data including recent release (.xlsx)

 

 

 

Weekly Economic Index (WEI)

October 15, 2020

 

Daniel Lewis, New York Fed

Karel Mertens, Dallas Fed

James Stock, Harvard University

The WEI is an index of 10 weekly indicators of real economic activity, scaled to have the units of four-quarter percent change of real GDP.

• The WEI is currently -3.91 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ended October 10 and -4.57 percent for October 03; for reference, the WEI stood at 1.55 percent for the week ended February 29.
• The increase in the WEI for the week of October 10 was due to increases in rail traffic, tax withholding, and electricity output (relative to the same time last year), which more than offset an increase in initial unemployment insurance claims. The WEI for the week of October 3 was revised downward due to the release of the staffing index and continuing unemployment insurance claims, which while higher and lower, respectively, than the prior week, still provided a more negative signal than previously available data.
• Data dashboard and .release (.pdf)
• Historical data including recent release (.xlsx)

 

 

 

Weekly Economic Index (WEI)

October 1, 2020

 

Daniel Lewis, New York Fed

Karel Mertens, Dallas Fed

James Stock, Harvard University

The WEI is an index of 10 weekly indicators of real economic activity, scaled to have the units of four-quarter percent change of real GDP.

• The WEI is currently -4.62 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ended September 26 and -4.95 percent for September 19; for reference, the WEI stood at 1.55 percent for the week ended February 29.
• The increase in the WEI for the week of September 26 was due to a decline in initial unemployment insurance claims, which more than offset decreases in electricity output, fuel sales, rail traffic, and tax withholding. The WEI for the week of September 19 was revised downward due to the continuing unemployment insurance claims release, which while lower than the prior week, still provided a more negative signal than previously available data.
• As alternative scales, the current WEI implies a 18.64 percent decrease in IP (YoY) and a 674k employee decrease in nonfarm payroll.
• Data dashboard and .release (.pdf)
• Historical data including recent release (.xlsx)