Jim Stock's Blog: September 2020

Sunday, September 27, 2020

Daniel Lewis, New York Fed

Karel Mertens, Dallas Fed

James Stock, Harvard University

The WEI is an index of 10 weekly indicators of real economic activity, scaled to have the units of four-quarter percent change of real GDP.

The WEI is currently -4.50 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ended September 19 and -5.91 percent for September 12; for reference, the WEI stood at 1.55 percent for the week ended February 29.
The increase in the WEI for the week of September 19 was due to increases in fuel sales, rail traffic, and tax withholding, which more than offset an increase in initial unemployment insurance claims and a decrease in electricity output. The WEI for the week of September 12 was revised downward due to an increase in continuing unemployment insurance claims (relative to the same time last year) and differences in the way series are weighted from the second revision to the final estimate.
As alternative scales, the current WEI implies a 18.28 percent decrease in IP (YoY) and a 660k employee decrease in nonfarm payroll.
Data dashboard and .release (.pdf)
Historical data including recent release (.xlsx)

Daniel Lewis, New York Fed

Karel Mertens, Dallas Fed

James Stock, Harvard University

The WEI is an index of 10 weekly indicators of real economic activity, scaled to have the units of four-quarter percent change of real GDP.

The WEI is currently -5.11 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ended September 12 and -5.07 percent for September 5; for reference, the WEI stood at 1.55 percent for the week ended February 29.
The decline in the WEI for the week of September 12 was due to decreases in fuel sales, electricity output, tax withholding, and rail traffic, which more than offset a fall in initial unemployment insurance claims. The WEI for the week of September 5 was revised downward due to the continuing unemployment insurance claims release, which while lower than the prior week, still provided a more negative signal than previously available data.
As alternative scales, the current WEI implies a 20.13 percent decrease in IP (YoY) and a 735k employee decrease in nonfarm payroll.
Data dashboard and .release (.pdf)
Historical data including recent release (.xlsx)

Daniel Lewis, New York Fed

Karel Mertens, Dallas Fed

James Stock, Harvard University

The WEI is an index of 10 weekly indicators of real economic activity, scaled to have the units of four-quarter percent change of real GDP.

The WEI is currently -4.26 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ended September 5 and -4.80 percent for August 29; for reference, the WEI stood at 1.55 percent for the week ended February 29.
The increase in the WEI for the week of September 5 was due to increases in steel production, rail traffic, and tax withholding, which more than offset an increase in initial unemployment insurance claims and a decline in retail sales. The WEI for the week of August 29 was revised downward due to an increase in continuing unemployment insurance claims, which more than offset an increase in the staffing index.
As alternative scales, the current WEI implies a 17.56 percent decrease in IP (YoY) and a 631k employee decrease in nonfarm payroll.
Data dashboard and .release (.pdf)
Historical data including recent release (.xlsx)

Daniel Lewis, New York Fed

Karel Mertens, Dallas Fed

James Stock, Harvard University

The WEI is an index of 10 weekly indicators of real economic activity, scaled to have the units of four-quarter percent change of real GDP.

The WEI is currently -4.41 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ended August 29 and -5.31 percent for August 22; for reference, the WEI stood at 1.55 percent for the week ended February 29.
The increase in the WEI for the week of August 29 was due to a decline in initial unemployment insurance claims (relative to the same time last year) and increases in electricity output and tax withholding, which more than offset declines in fuel sales and rail traffic. The WEI for the week of August 22 was revised downward due to the continuing unemployment insurance claims release, which while lower than the prior week, still provided a more negative signal than previously available data.
As alternative scales, the current WEI implies an 18.02 percent decrease in IP (YoY) and a 650k employee decrease in nonfarm payroll.
Data dashboard and .release (.pdf)
Historical data including recent release (.xlsx)