Jim Stock's Blog: July 2020

Thursday, July 30, 2020

Daniel Lewis, New York Fed

Karel Mertens, Dallas Fed

James Stock, Harvard University

The WEI is an index of 10 weekly indicators of real economic activity, scaled to have the units of four-quarter percent change of real GDP.

The WEI is currently -6.60 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ended July 25 and -7.61 percent for July 18; for reference, the WEI stood at 1.55 percent for the week ended February 29
Today’s increase in the WEI for the week of July 25 was driven by a decline in initial UI claims and increases in fuel sales, electricity output, and tax withholding, which more than offset a decrease in rail traffic. The WEI for the week of July 18 was revised downward due to an increase in continuing UI claims, which provided a more negative signal than previously available data.
As alternative scales, the current WEI implies a 24.63 percent decrease in IP (YoY) and a 917k employee decrease in nonfarm payroll.
Data dashboard and .release (.pdf)
Historical data including recent release (.xlsx)

Daniel Lewis, New York Fed

Karel Mertens, Dallas Fed

James Stock, Harvard University

The WEI is an index of 10 weekly indicators of real economic activity, scaled to have the units of four-quarter percent change of real GDP.

The WEI is currently -7.08 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ended July 18 and -6.99 percent for July 11; for reference, the WEI stood at 1.54 percent for the week ended February 29.
Today’s decline in the WEI for the week of July 18 is due to an increase in initial UI claims (relative to the same time last year) and decreases in fuel sales and electricity production, which more than offset increases in railroad traffic and tax withholdings. The WEI for the week of July 11 was revised downward due to the continuing UI claims release, which, while lower than the prior week, still provided a more negative signal than previously available data.
As alternative scales, the current WEI implies a 26.02 percent decrease in IP (YoY) and a 974k employee decrease in nonfarm payroll.
Data dashboard and .release (.pdf)
Historical data including recent release (.xlsx)

Daniel Lewis, New York Fed

Karel Mertens, Dallas Fed

James Stock, Harvard University

The WEI is an index of 10 weekly indicators of real economic activity, scaled to have the units of four-quarter percent change of real GDP.

The WEI is currently -6.63 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ended July 11 and -7.21 percent for July 04; for reference, the WEI stood at 1.54 percent for the week ended February 29.
Today’s increase in the WEI for the week of July 11 is driven by increases in fuel sales, electricity production, and tax withholding, which more than offset an increase in initial UI claims and a decrease in railroad traffic (relative to this time last year). The WEI for the week of July 4 was revised downwards due to the continuing UI claims release, which, while lower than last week (relative to this time last year), still provided a more negative signal than previous data.
As alternative scales, the current WEI implies a 24.68 percent decrease in IP (YoY) and a 920k employee decrease in nonfarm payroll.
Data dashboard and .release (.pdf)
Historical data including recent release (.xlsx)

Daniel Lewis, New York Fed

Karel Mertens, Dallas Fed

James Stock, Harvard University

The WEI is an index of 10 weekly indicators of real economic activity, scaled to have the units of four-quarter percent change of real GDP.

The WEI is currently -6.83 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ended July 4 and -7.66 percent for June 27; for reference, the WEI stood at 1.54 percent for the week ended February 29.
Today’s increase in the WEI for the week of July 04 is driven by increases in electricity production and rail traffic (relative to the same time last year) and a small decrease in initial UI claims, which more than offset declines in fuel sales and tax withholdings. The WEI for the week of June 27 was revised downwards due to the continuing UI claims release, which provided a weaker signal than previously available data.
As alternative scales, the current WEI implies a 25.29 percent decrease in IP (YoY) and a 944k employee decrease in nonfarm payroll.
Data dashboard and .release (.pdf)
Historical data including recent release (.xlsx)

Daniel Lewis, New York Fed

Karel Mertens, Dallas Fed

James Stock, Harvard University

The WEI is an index of 10 weekly indicators of real economic activity, scaled to have the units of four-quarter percent change of real GDP.

The WEI is currently -7.44 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ended June 27 and -7.91 percent for June 20; for reference, the WEI stood at 1.54 percent for the week ended February 29.
Today’s increase in the WEI for the week of June 27 is driven by increases in electricity output and fuel sales and a small decrease in initial UI claims, which more than offset decreases in tax withholdings and rail traffic relative to the same time last year. The WEI for the week of June 20 was revised downwards following a small decrease in continuing claims, since the release still provides a weaker signal than previously available data.
As alternative scales, the current WEI implies a 27.11 percent decrease in IP (YoY) and a 1018k employee decrease in nonfarm payroll.
Data dashboard and .release (.pdf)
Historical data including recent release (.xlsx)