Jim Stock's Blog: June 2020

Tuesday, June 23, 2020

Daniel Lewis, New York Fed

Karel Mertens, Dallas Fed

James Stock, Harvard University

The WEI is an index of 10 weekly indicators of real economic activity, scaled to have the units of four-quarter percent change of real GDP.

The WEI is currently -8.20 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ended June 20 and -7.74 percent for June 13; for reference, the WEI stood at 1.54 percent for the week ended February 29.
Today’s decrease in the WEI for the week of June 20 is due to a decrease in consumer confidence, which more than offset increases in retail sales and steel production. We anticipate an upward revision on Thursday when data series that have recently provided more positive signals are available. The WEI for the week of June 13 was revised upward following an increase in the staffing index, which provided a more positive signal than previously available data.
As alternative scales, the current WEI implies a 29.43 percent decrease in IP (YoY) and a 1112k employee decrease in nonfarm payroll.
Data dashboard and .release (.pdf)
Historical data including recent release (.xlsx)

Daniel Lewis, New York Fed

Karel Mertens, Dallas Fed

James Stock, Harvard University

The WEI is an index of 10 weekly indicators of real economic activity, scaled to have the units of four-quarter percent change of real GDP.

The WEI is currently -8.39 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ended June 13 and -9.23 percent for June 06; for reference, the WEI stood at 1.54 percent for the week ended February 29.
Today’s increase in the WEI for the week of June 13 was driven by increases in electricity output (the highest year-over-year gain since December), fuel sales, railroad traffic, and tax withholdings as well as a decrease in initial UI claims. The WEI for the week of June 6 was revised upwards due to the release of continuing UI claims, which provided a more positive signal than previously available data.
As alternative scales, the current WEI implies a 29.98 percent decrease in IP (YoY) and a 1134k employee decrease in nonfarm payroll.
Data dashboard and .release (.pdf)
Historical data including recent release (.xlsx)

Daniel Lewis, New York Fed

Karel Mertens, Dallas Fed

James Stock, Harvard University

The WEI is an index of 10 weekly indicators of real economic activity, scaled to have the units of four-quarter percent change of real GDP.

The WEI is currently -10.00 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ended June 06 and -9.60 percent for May 30; for reference, the WEI stood at 1.54 percent for the week ended February 29.
Today’s increase in the WEI for the week of June 6 reflects a fall in initial UI claims and increases in fuel sales, railroad traffic, electricity output, and tax withholdings. The WEI for the week of May 30 was revised upwards because today’s continuing UI claims release provided a more positive signal than previously available data.
As alternative scales, the current WEI implies a 34.86 percent decrease in IP (YoY) and a 1332k employee decrease in nonfarm payroll.
Data dashboard and .release (.pdf)
Historical data including recent release (.xlsx)

Daniel Lewis, New York Fed

Karel Mertens, Dallas Fed

James Stock, Harvard University

The WEI is an index of 10 weekly indicators of real economic activity, scaled to have the units of four-quarter percent change of real GDP.

The WEI is currently -10.08 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ended May 30 and -9.36 percent for May 23; for reference, the WEI stood at 1.58 percent for the week ended February 29.
Today’s increase in the WEI for the week of May 30 was led by the continued fall in initial UI claims, supported by increases in rail traffic and electricity output relative to the same time last year. These factors more than offset lower fuel sales and a small decrease in payroll withholdings. The WEI for the week of May 23 was revised upwards as the continuing UI claims release, while an increase over the prior week, was less negative than other data.
As alternative scales, the current WEI implies a 35.28 percent decrease in IP (YoY) and a 1343k employee decrease in nonfarm payroll.
Data dashboard and .release (.pdf)
Historical data including recent release (.xlsx)