Weekly Economic Index (WEI)

May 28, 2020

 

Daniel Lewis, New York Fed

Karel Mertens, Dallas Fed

James Stock, Harvard University

The WEI is an index of 10 weekly indicators of real economic activity, scaled to have the units of four-quarter percent change of real GDP.

• The WEI is currently -9.87 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ended May 23 and -10.03 percent for May 16; for reference, the WEI stood at 1.58 percent for the week ended February 29.
• Today’s increase in the WEI for the week of May 23rd was driven by a strong rebound of retail sales, the continued decline of initial UI claims, and modest rises in steel production, rail traffic, and tax withholdings. Fuel sales and electricity production releases have been delayed due to Memorial Day. The WEI for the week of May 16th was revised upwards due to the continuing UI claims release being more positive than other data, possibly due to claims from federal pandemic programs not being included, and a small increase in the staffing index.
• As alternative scales, the current WEI implies a 34.63 percent decrease in IP (YoY) and a 1317k employee decrease in nonfarm payroll. 
• Data dashboard and .release (.pdf) 
• Historical data including recent release (.xlsx)

Weekly Economic Index (WEI)

May 21, 2020

 

Daniel Lewis, New York Fed

Karel Mertens, Dallas Fed

James Stock, Harvard University

The WEI is an index of 10 weekly indicators of real economic activity, scaled to have the units of four-quarter percent change of real GDP.

 

• The WEI is currently -11.09 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ended May 16 and -10.17 percent for May 9; for reference, the WEI stood at 1.58 percent for the week ended February 29.
• Today’s increase in the WEI for the week of May 16 is driven by a fall in initial UI claims (although the data remain elevated at 2.17 million, not seasonally adjusted). This outweighed a decrease in fuel sales and electricity output relative to a year ago, with rail traffic essentially unchanged. The WEI for the week of May 9 was revised upwards due to today’s continuing UI claims release, which provided a more positive signal than other sources.
• As alternative scales, the current WEI implies a 38.85 percent decrease in IP (YoY) and a 1466k employee decrease in nonfarm payroll. 
• Data dashboard and .release (.pdf) 
• Historical data including recent release (.xlsx)

Weekly Economic Index (WEI)

May 14, 2020

 

Daniel Lewis, New York Fed

Karel Mertens, Dallas Fed

James Stock, Harvard University

The WEI is an index of 10 weekly indicators of real economic activity, scaled to have the units of four-quarter percent change of real GDP.

•  The WEI is currently -11.14 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ended May 09 and -10.91 percent for May 02; for reference, the WEI stood at 1.58 for the week ended February 29.
• Today’s increase in the WEI for the week of May 09 was driven by a decrease in initial unemployment insurance (UI) claims and increases in fuel sales and electricity output. These factors more than offset a decrease in payroll withholdings and unchanged rail traffic. The upward revision to the WEI for the week of May 02 was due to a decrease in continuing UI claims, which may be due to some workers claiming benefits from pandemic relief programs instead of state programs.
• As an alternative scale, the current WEI implies a 37.51 percent decrease in IP (YoY) and a 7238k employee decrease in nonfarm payroll. 
• Data dashboard and .release (.pdf) 
• Historical data including recent release (.xlsx)

Professional Forecasters' Outlook

 

The Wall Street Journal came out with its monthly survey of economists today. The chart below, which I generated from the forecasts, speaks for itself.

Weekly Economic Index (WEI)

May 12, 2020

 

Daniel Lewis, New York Fed

Karel Mertens, Dallas Fed

James Stock, Harvard University

The WEI is an index of 10 weekly indicators of real economic activity, scaled to have the units of four-quarter percent change of real GDP.

• The WEI is currently -12.00 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ending May 09 and -11.14 percent for May 02; for reference, the WEI stood at 1.58 percent for the week ending February 29. 
• Today’s decline in the WEI for the week of May 9 is a result of the weight placed on past values of the WEI in updates based on only partial data. This persistence outweighed modest recoveries in retail sales, consumer confidence, and steel production. The WEI for the week of May 2 was revised upwards after today’s release of the staffing index was less negative than previous data. 
• As alternative scales, the current WEI implies a 40.09 percent decrease in IP (YoY) and a 7737k employee decrease in nonfarm payroll. 
• Data dashboard and .release (.pdf) 
• Historical data including recent release (.xlsx)

Weekly Economic Index (WEI)

May 7, 2020

 

Daniel Lewis, New York Fed

Karel Mertens, Dallas Fed

James Stock, Harvard University

The WEI is an index of 10 weekly indicators of real economic activity, scaled to have the units of four-quarter percent change of real GDP.

• The WEI is currently -11.91 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ending May 02 and -10.90 percent for April 25; for reference, the WEI stood at 1.58 for the week ending February 29.
• Today’s slight decline in the WEI for the week of 05/02 was driven by this morning’s initial UI claims release, which remained elevated (2.85 million, not seasonally adjusted), a decrease in electricity usage, and a fall in fuel sales relative to the same time last year. These factors more than offset modest weekly increases in rail traffic and payroll tax withholdings. Today’s continuing claims release (22.04 million not seasonally adjusted) for the week of 04/25 left that week’s WEI unchanged.
• As alternative scales, the current WEI implies a 39.8 percent decrease in IP (YoY) and a 1,610k employee decrease in nonfarm payroll.
• Data dashboard and .release (.pdf)
• Historical data including recent release (.xlsx)

Weekly Economic Index (WEI)

May 5, 2020

 

Daniel Lewis, New York Fed

Karel Mertens, Dallas Fed

James Stock, Harvard University

The WEI is an index of 10 weekly indicators of real economic activity, scaled to have the units of four-quarter percent change of real GDP.

 

• The WEI is currently -11.84 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ending May 02 and -10.90 percent for April 25; for reference, the WEI stood at 1.58 for the week ending February 29.
• Today’s decline in the WEI for the week of May 2 is driven by decreases in steel production and retail sales, as well as a small drop in consumer confidence. The upward revision of the WEI for the week of April 25 is a result of the decline in this morning’s staffing index release being less negative than previously available data.
• As alternative scales, the current WEI implies a 39.61 percent decrease in IP (YoY) and a 1603k employee decrease in nonfarm payroll. 
• Data dashboard and .release (.pdf)
• Historical data including recent release (.xlsx)