Tuesday, March 24, 2020

 Coronavirus Data Gaps and the Policy Response to the Novel Coronavirus
  
This note (updated 3/25/20) lays out the basic SIR epidemiological model of contagion, with a target audience of economists who want a framework for understanding the effects of social distancing and containment policies on the evolution of contagion and interactions with the economy. The model is calibrated to the most recent data, however it simple nature abstracts from many important considerations and its output is not intended to supersede estimates from more sophisticated epidemiological models.

This note makes four main points:
  • The effect of social distancing and business shutdowns on epidemic dynamics enters the model through a single parameter, the case transmission rate β. For a specified case transmission rate, the policy design question is how to achieve that case transmission rate while minimizing economic cost. A second economic question is, what is the optimal case path for β, trading off the economic cost of that path against the costs in deaths.
  • The parameters of the model are not well estimated in the literature on the coronavirus because of the lack of available data. Data on prevalence, for example, is obtained from positive rates of testing for the coronavirus, however so far tests have been rationed and almost entirely have been administered to a selected population, those at risk and showing symptoms. Thus, the fraction of tests that are positive do not estimate the population rate of infection.
  • Using Bayes Law, it is possible to re-express the model in terms of β and the asymptomatic rate, which is the fraction of the infected who show sufficiently mild, or no, symptoms so that they are not tested under current testing guidelines. The virtue of re-expressing the model this way is that it makes use of the positive testing rate, on which there is good data. The COVID-19 asymptomatic rate is unidentified in our model and recent estimates in the epidemiological literature range from 0.18 to 0.86. However, the asymptomatic rate could be estimated accurately and quickly by testing a random sample of the overall population.
  • The policy response and its economic consequences hinge critically on the asymptomatic rate. As we illustrate using two policy paths for β, without better knowledge of this knowable parameter, policymakers could make needlessly conservative decisions which would have vast economic costs.
Read more...

10 comments:

  1. Good takeaways, thank you. (Please double check your blue-red legend for FIG. 1).

    ReplyDelete
  2. Very interesting. It's intuitive that the key missing bit of information here is how many infected people are asymptomatic.

    ReplyDelete
  3. I'd only add the observation the strong non-linearity of health outcomes around some threshold value of I. That is, we need to model what happens when the infected population exceeds the capacity of the health care system.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That's a great point. That's one of the key issues with a pandemic, and why we're all saying #flattenthecurve. And it explains the mess in Italy.

      Delete
  4. Great work man you have post a great post it will help people very much keep it do more for people like that funded forex account.


    ReplyDelete
  5. 소액대출도 쇼핑하라 모든 무직자대출 대출 비교해보자 모바일대출과 자동차담보대출을 내맘대로 알아보는 대출몽이 있으니까 더 많은 정보를 원하시면 여기를 클릭하세요 더 많은 정보를 원하시면 여기를 클릭하세요 dc-mong.com.

    ReplyDelete
  6. very nice article
    علاج دوالي الساقين بالليزر من اشهر العمليات لعلاج الدوالي بدون الم او اثر بعد العملية
    حيث يقوم بها الدكتور محمود ناصر احسن دكتور اوعية دموية في مصر
    فتتم العملية عن طريق توجيه الليزر ذو الترددات العلاجية علي المكان المصاب بالدوالي ومن بعدها يشعر المريض بتحسن

    ReplyDelete
  7. الفتق السري هو حالة مرضية شائعة جدًا بين الأطفال الرضع، لكنه موجود أيضًا لدى البالغين ويعاني فيه الشخص من انتفاخ جزء من الأمعاء من خلال منطقة ضعيفة في عضلة البطن مما يعطي الشعور بعدم الارتياح وحتي تتخلص من هذا المرض لابد من اجراء عملية الفتق السري بالمنظار عند جراح متخصص كالدكتور احمد عبد السلام.

    ReplyDelete
  8. يوفر مصنع المصرية السعودية افضل مصنع شريط ليد في مصر لكل عملائه توفر إضاءة فعالة لكل الغرفة بصورة عامة، يمكن توفيرها عن طريق مصابيح الأسقف أو المصابيح التي تتجه للأعلى وانارة شاعرية لاصحاب لكل الباحثين عن الرومانسية والجاذبية كذلك اضاءة وظيفية تختلف إضاءتها حسب وظيفة الغرفة ومهام العاملين فيها، كذلك غرف المنازل تختلف إضاءة كل منها عن الأخرى، فإنارة غرف النوم هادئة على عكس غرف الطعام والجلوس مثلاً.

    ReplyDelete
  9. If you want to buy a luxurious dressing room characterized by sophistication, deal with Amr Helmy company because it offers the best wardrobes design in Egypt and its prices are very cheap compared to the prices of competing companies

    ReplyDelete