Weekly Economic Index (WEI)

December 24 2020

 

Daniel Lewis, New York Fed

Karel Mertens, Dallas Fed

James Stock, Harvard University

The WEI is an index of 10 weekly indicators of real economic activity, scaled to have the units of four-quarter percent change of real GDP.

• The WEI is currently -2.21 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ended December 19 and -2.72 percent for December 12; for reference, the WEI stood at 1.55 percent for the week ended February 29.
• The increase in the WEI for the week of December 19 is due to a decrease in initial unemployment insurance claims and rises in fuel sales and electricity output, which more than offset declines in tax withholding and rail traffic. The WEI for the week of December 12 was revised downward due to continuing unemployment insurance claims, which while lower than the prior week, still provided a more negative signal than previously available data.
• As alternative scales, the current WEI implies an 11.34 percent decrease in IP (YoY) and a 379k employee decrease in nonfarm payroll.
• Data dashboard and .release (.pdf)
• Historical data including recent release (.xlsx)

 

 

 

Weekly Economic Index (WEI)

December 10 2020

 

Daniel Lewis, New York Fed

Karel Mertens, Dallas Fed

James Stock, Harvard University

The WEI is an index of 10 weekly indicators of real economic activity, scaled to have the units of four-quarter percent change of real GDP.

• The WEI is currently -2.39 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ended December 5 and -2.08 percent for November 28; for reference, the WEI stood at 1.55 percent for the week ended February 29.
• The decline in the WEI for the week of December 5 is due to a decrease in fuel sales, which more than offset a decrease in initial unemployment insurance claims (relative to the same time last year) and rises in tax withholding, electricity output, and rail traffic. The WEI for the week of November 28 was revised downward due to continuing unemployment insurance claims, which while lower than the prior week, still provided a more negative signal than previously available data.
• As alternative scales, the current WEI implies a 11.89 percent decrease in IP (YoY) and a 401k employee decrease in nonfarm payroll.
• Data dashboard and .release (.pdf)
• Historical data including recent release (.xlsx)

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Economic Index (WEI)

December 3 2020

 

Daniel Lewis, New York Fed

Karel Mertens, Dallas Fed

James Stock, Harvard University

The WEI is an index of 10 weekly indicators of real economic activity, scaled to have the units of four-quarter percent change of real GDP.

• The WEI is currently -2.31 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ended November 28 and -2.87 percent for November 21; for reference, the WEI stood at 1.55 percent for the week ended February 29.
• The increase in the WEI for the week of November 28 is due to a decrease in initial unemployment insurance claims and rises in tax withholding, fuel sales, and rail traffic (relative to the same time last year), which more than offset a decline in electricity output. The WEI for the week of November 21 was revised downward due to continuing unemployment insurance claims, which while lower than the prior week, still provided a more negative signal than previously available data.
• As alternative scales, the current WEI implies a 11.67 percent decrease in IP (YoY) and a 392k employee decrease in nonfarm payroll.
• Data dashboard and .release (.pdf)
• Historical data including recent release (.xlsx)

 

 

 

 

Weekly Economic Index (WEI)

November 25, 2020

 

Daniel Lewis, New York Fed

Karel Mertens, Dallas Fed

James Stock, Harvard University

The WEI is an index of 10 weekly indicators of real economic activity, scaled to have the units of four-quarter percent change of real GDP.

• The WEI is currently -2.83 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ended November 21 and -3.00 percent for November 14; for reference, the WEI stood at 1.55 percent for the week ended February 29.
• The increase in the WEI for the week of November 21 (relative to the final revision for the week of November 14) is due to a decrease in initial unemployment insurance claims (relative to the same time last year) and a rise in electricity output which more than offset declines in tax withholding, rail traffic, and fuel sales (relative to the same time last year). The WEI for the week of November 14 was revised downward due to continuing unemployment insurance claims, which while lower than the prior week, still provided a more negative signal than previously available data.
• As alternative scales, the current WEI implies a 13.23 percent decrease in IP (YoY) and a 455k employee decrease in nonfarm payroll.
• Data dashboard and .release (.pdf)
• Historical data including recent release (.xlsx)

 

 

 

 

Weekly Economic Index (WEI)

November 10, 2020

 

Daniel Lewis, New York Fed

Karel Mertens, Dallas Fed

James Stock, Harvard University

The WEI is an index of 10 weekly indicators of real economic activity, scaled to have the units of four-quarter percent change of real GDP.

 

• The WEI is currently -3.02 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ended November 7 and -2.50 percent for October 31; for reference, the WEI stood at 1.55 percent for the week ended February 29.
• The decline in the WEI for the week of November 7 (relative to the second revision for the week of October 31) is due to declines in retail sales and consumer confidence, which more than offset an increase in raw steel production, as well as data series that have recently provided more positive signals not yet being available. The WEI for the week of October 31 was revised upward due to an increase in the staffing index.
• As alternative scales, the current WEI implies a 13.8 percent decrease in IP (YoY) and a 478k employee decrease in nonfarm payroll.
• Data dashboard and .release (.pdf)
• Historical data including recent release (.xlsx)

 

 

 

 

Weekly Economic Index (WEI)

October 29, 2020

 

Daniel Lewis, New York Fed

Karel Mertens, Dallas Fed

James Stock, Harvard University

The WEI is an index of 10 weekly indicators of real economic activity, scaled to have the units of four-quarter percent change of real GDP.

 

• The WEI is currently -3.32 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ended October 24 and -4.01 percent for October 17; for reference, the WEI stood at 1.55 percent for the week ended February 29.
• The increase in the WEI for the week of October 24 was due to a decrease in initial unemployment insurance claims and increases in fuel sales and tax withholding, which more than offset decreases in electricity output and rail traffic (relative to the same time last year). The WEI for the week of October 24 was revised downward due to continuing unemployment insurance claims, which while lower than the prior week, still provided a more negative signal than previously available data.
• As alternative scales, the current WEI implies a 14.73 percent decrease in IP (YoY) and a 516k employee decrease in nonfarm payroll.
• Data dashboard and .release (.pdf)
• Historical data including recent release (.xlsx)

 

 

 

Weekly Economic Index (WEI)

October 15, 2020

 

Daniel Lewis, New York Fed

Karel Mertens, Dallas Fed

James Stock, Harvard University

The WEI is an index of 10 weekly indicators of real economic activity, scaled to have the units of four-quarter percent change of real GDP.

• The WEI is currently -3.91 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ended October 10 and -4.57 percent for October 03; for reference, the WEI stood at 1.55 percent for the week ended February 29.
• The increase in the WEI for the week of October 10 was due to increases in rail traffic, tax withholding, and electricity output (relative to the same time last year), which more than offset an increase in initial unemployment insurance claims. The WEI for the week of October 3 was revised downward due to the release of the staffing index and continuing unemployment insurance claims, which while higher and lower, respectively, than the prior week, still provided a more negative signal than previously available data.
• Data dashboard and .release (.pdf)
• Historical data including recent release (.xlsx)

 

 

 

Weekly Economic Index (WEI)

October 1, 2020

 

Daniel Lewis, New York Fed

Karel Mertens, Dallas Fed

James Stock, Harvard University

The WEI is an index of 10 weekly indicators of real economic activity, scaled to have the units of four-quarter percent change of real GDP.

• The WEI is currently -4.62 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ended September 26 and -4.95 percent for September 19; for reference, the WEI stood at 1.55 percent for the week ended February 29.
• The increase in the WEI for the week of September 26 was due to a decline in initial unemployment insurance claims, which more than offset decreases in electricity output, fuel sales, rail traffic, and tax withholding. The WEI for the week of September 19 was revised downward due to the continuing unemployment insurance claims release, which while lower than the prior week, still provided a more negative signal than previously available data.
• As alternative scales, the current WEI implies a 18.64 percent decrease in IP (YoY) and a 674k employee decrease in nonfarm payroll.
• Data dashboard and .release (.pdf)
• Historical data including recent release (.xlsx)

 

 

Weekly Economic Index (WEI)

September 24, 2020

 

Daniel Lewis, New York Fed

Karel Mertens, Dallas Fed

James Stock, Harvard University

The WEI is an index of 10 weekly indicators of real economic activity, scaled to have the units of four-quarter percent change of real GDP.

• The WEI is currently -4.50 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ended September 19 and -5.91 percent for September 12; for reference, the WEI stood at 1.55 percent for the week ended February 29.
• The increase in the WEI for the week of September 19 was due to increases in fuel sales, rail traffic, and tax withholding, which more than offset an increase in initial unemployment insurance claims and a decrease in electricity output. The WEI for the week of September 12 was revised downward due to an increase in continuing unemployment insurance claims (relative to the same time last year) and differences in the way series are weighted from the second revision to the final estimate.
• As alternative scales, the current WEI implies a 18.28 percent decrease in IP (YoY) and a 660k employee decrease in nonfarm payroll.
• Data dashboard and .release (.pdf)
• Historical data including recent release (.xlsx)

 

 

Weekly Economic Index (WEI)

September 17, 2020

 

Daniel Lewis, New York Fed

Karel Mertens, Dallas Fed

James Stock, Harvard University

The WEI is an index of 10 weekly indicators of real economic activity, scaled to have the units of four-quarter percent change of real GDP.

• The WEI is currently -5.11 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ended September 12 and -5.07 percent for September 5; for reference, the WEI stood at 1.55 percent for the week ended February 29.
• The decline in the WEI for the week of September 12 was due to decreases in fuel sales, electricity output, tax withholding, and rail traffic, which more than offset a fall in initial unemployment insurance claims. The WEI for the week of September 5 was revised downward due to the continuing unemployment insurance claims release, which while lower than the prior week, still provided a more negative signal than previously available data.
• As alternative scales, the current WEI implies a 20.13 percent decrease in IP (YoY) and a 735k employee decrease in nonfarm payroll.
• Data dashboard and .release (.pdf)
• Historical data including recent release (.xlsx)

 

 

 

 

Weekly Economic Index (WEI)

September 10, 2020

 

Daniel Lewis, New York Fed

Karel Mertens, Dallas Fed

James Stock, Harvard University

The WEI is an index of 10 weekly indicators of real economic activity, scaled to have the units of four-quarter percent change of real GDP.

• The WEI is currently -4.26 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ended September 5 and -4.80 percent for August 29; for reference, the WEI stood at 1.55 percent for the week ended February 29.
• The increase in the WEI for the week of September 5 was due to increases in steel production, rail traffic, and tax withholding, which more than offset an increase in initial unemployment insurance claims and a decline in retail sales. The WEI for the week of August 29 was revised downward due to an increase in continuing unemployment insurance claims, which more than offset an increase in the staffing index.
• As alternative scales, the current WEI implies a 17.56 percent decrease in IP (YoY) and a 631k employee decrease in nonfarm payroll.
• Data dashboard and .release (.pdf)
• Historical data including recent release (.xlsx)

 

 

 

Weekly Economic Index (WEI)

September 3, 2020

 

Daniel Lewis, New York Fed

Karel Mertens, Dallas Fed

James Stock, Harvard University

The WEI is an index of 10 weekly indicators of real economic activity, scaled to have the units of four-quarter percent change of real GDP.

• The WEI is currently -4.41 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ended August 29 and -5.31 percent for August 22; for reference, the WEI stood at 1.55 percent for the week ended February 29.
• The increase in the WEI for the week of August 29 was due to a decline in initial unemployment insurance claims (relative to the same time last year) and increases in electricity output and tax withholding, which more than offset declines in fuel sales and rail traffic. The WEI for the week of August 22 was revised downward due to the continuing unemployment insurance claims release, which while lower than the prior week, still provided a more negative signal than previously available data.
• As alternative scales, the current WEI implies an 18.02 percent decrease in IP (YoY) and a 650k employee decrease in nonfarm payroll.
• Data dashboard and .release (.pdf)
• Historical data including recent release (.xlsx)

 

 

 

Weekly Economic Index (WEI)

August 27, 2020

 

Daniel Lewis, New York Fed

Karel Mertens, Dallas Fed

James Stock, Harvard University

The WEI is an index of 10 weekly indicators of real economic activity, scaled to have the units of four-quarter percent change of real GDP.

• The WEI is currently -4.91 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ended August 22 and -6.16 percent for August 15; for reference, the WEI stood at 1.55 percent for the week ended February 29.
• The increase in the WEI for the week of August 22 was due to a decline in initial unemployment insurance claims and increases in fuel sales, rail traffic, and tax withholding, which more than offset a decline in electricity output. The WEI for the week of August 15 was revised downward due to the continuing unemployment insurance claims release, which while lower than the prior week, still provided a more negative signal than previously available data.
• As alternative scales, the current WEI implies a 19.53 percent decrease in IP (YoY) and a 711k employee decrease in nonfarm payroll.
• Data dashboard and .release (.pdf)
• Historical data including recent release (.xlsx)

 

Weekly Economic Index (WEI)

August 20, 2020

 

Daniel Lewis, New York Fed

Karel Mertens, Dallas Fed

James Stock, Harvard University

The WEI is an index of 10 weekly indicators of real economic activity, scaled to have the units of four-quarter percent change of real GDP.

 

• The WEI is currently -5.73 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ended August 15 and -6.07 percent for August 08; for reference, the WEI stood at 1.55 percent for the week ended February 29.
• The increase in the WEI for the week of August 15 (relative to the final estimate for August 8) was due to an increase in electricity output, which offset an increase in unemployment insurance initial claims and declines in fuel sales, tax withholding, and rail traffic (relative to the same time last year). The WEI for the week of August 8 was revised downward due to the continuing unemployment insurance claims release, which while lower than the prior week, still provided a more negative signal than previously available data.
• As alternative scales, the current WEI implies a 21.99 percent decrease in IP (YoY) and a 811k employee decrease in nonfarm payroll.
• Data dashboard and .release (.pdf)
• Historical data including recent release (.xlsx)

 

 

Professional Forecasters' Outlook - August Update

 
On May 14 I posted a plot of the distribution of forecasts from the Wall Street Journal's monthly survey of economists. Here is the history of these plots, for surveys from May, June, July, and August, in reverse chronological order. 

The survey comes out around the 12th of the month. Changes in the outlook represent becoming more optimistic, as they were in June and July, or less, as they are in August. The August forecasts are about back to the gloomy outlook in May. 

The spread of the distribution of forecasts has tightened since May. However, the spread of the forecast doesn't capture uncertainty - it is just the dispersion of the point forecasts, not a representation of the composite uncertainty about the economists' forecasts.

 

 

Weekly Economic Index (WEI)

August 13, 2020

 

Daniel Lewis, New York Fed

Karel Mertens, Dallas Fed

James Stock, Harvard University

The WEI is an index of 10 weekly indicators of real economic activity, scaled to have the units of four-quarter percent change of real GDP.

 

• The WEI is currently -5.47 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ended August 8 and -6.53 percent for August 1; for reference, the WEI stood at 1.55 percent for the week ended February 29.
• The increase in the WEI for the week of August 8 was due to a decline in initial unemployment insurance claims and increases in rail traffic and fuel sales, which more than offset decreases in electricity output and tax withholding. The WEI for the week of August 1 was revised downward due to the continuing unemployment insurance claims release, which while lower than the prior week, still provided a more negative signal than previously available data.
• As alternative scales, the current WEI implies a 21.22 percent decrease in IP (YoY) and a 779k employee decrease in nonfarm payroll.
• Data dashboard and .release (.pdf)
• Historical data including recent release (.xlsx)

 

Weekly Economic Index (WEI)

August 6, 2020

 

Daniel Lewis, New York Fed

Karel Mertens, Dallas Fed

James Stock, Harvard University

The WEI is an index of 10 weekly indicators of real economic activity, scaled to have the units of four-quarter percent change of real GDP.

• The WEI is currently -6.20 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ended August 01 and -7.01 percent for July 25; for reference, the WEI stood at 1.55 percent for the week ended February 29
• Today’s increase in the WEI for the week of August 1 was driven by a decline in initial UI claims (the first value below 1 million since the week of March 14, 2020, in non-seasonally adjusted terms) and increases in rail traffic and tax withholding, which more than offset decreases in fuel sales and electricity output. The WEI for the week of July 25 was revised downward due to the continuing UI claims release, which while lower than the prior week, still provided a more negative signal than previously available data.
• As alternative scales, the current WEI implies a 23.44 percent decrease in IP (YoY) and a 869k employee decrease in nonfarm payroll.
• Data dashboard and .release (.pdf)
• Historical data including recent release (.xlsx)

Weekly Economic Index (WEI)

July 30, 2020

 

Daniel Lewis, New York Fed

Karel Mertens, Dallas Fed

James Stock, Harvard University

The WEI is an index of 10 weekly indicators of real economic activity, scaled to have the units of four-quarter percent change of real GDP.

• The WEI is currently -6.60 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ended July 25 and -7.61 percent for July 18; for reference, the WEI stood at 1.55 percent for the week ended February 29
• Today’s increase in the WEI for the week of July 25 was driven by a decline in initial UI claims and increases in fuel sales, electricity output, and tax withholding, which more than offset a decrease in rail traffic. The WEI for the week of July 18 was revised downward due to an increase in continuing UI claims, which provided a more negative signal than previously available data. 
• As alternative scales, the current WEI implies a 24.63 percent decrease in IP (YoY) and a 917k employee decrease in nonfarm payroll.
• Data dashboard and .release (.pdf)
• Historical data including recent release (.xlsx)

Weekly Economic Index (WEI)

July 23, 2020

 

Daniel Lewis, New York Fed

Karel Mertens, Dallas Fed

James Stock, Harvard University

The WEI is an index of 10 weekly indicators of real economic activity, scaled to have the units of four-quarter percent change of real GDP.

• The WEI is currently -7.08 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ended July 18 and -6.99 percent for July 11; for reference, the WEI stood at 1.54 percent for the week ended February 29.
• Today’s decline in the WEI for the week of July 18 is due to an increase in initial UI claims (relative to the same time last year) and decreases in fuel sales and electricity production, which more than offset increases in railroad traffic and tax withholdings. The WEI for the week of July 11 was revised downward due to the continuing UI claims release, which, while lower than the prior week, still provided a more negative signal than previously available data.
• As alternative scales, the current WEI implies a 26.02 percent decrease in IP (YoY) and a 974k employee decrease in nonfarm payroll. 
• Data dashboard and .release (.pdf)
• Historical data including recent release (.xlsx)

Weekly Economic Index (WEI)

July 16, 2020

 

Daniel Lewis, New York Fed

Karel Mertens, Dallas Fed

James Stock, Harvard University

The WEI is an index of 10 weekly indicators of real economic activity, scaled to have the units of four-quarter percent change of real GDP.

• The WEI is currently -6.63 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ended July 11 and -7.21 percent for July 04; for reference, the WEI stood at 1.54 percent for the week ended February 29.
• Today’s increase in the WEI for the week of July 11 is driven by increases in fuel sales, electricity production, and tax withholding, which more than offset an increase in initial UI claims and a decrease in railroad traffic (relative to this time last year). The WEI for the week of July 4 was revised downwards due to the continuing UI claims release, which, while lower than last week (relative to this time last year), still provided a more negative signal than previous data. 
• As alternative scales, the current WEI implies a 24.68 percent decrease in IP (YoY) and a 920k employee decrease in nonfarm payroll. 
• Data dashboard and .release (.pdf)
• Historical data including recent release (.xlsx)

Weekly Economic Index (WEI)

July 9, 2020

 

Daniel Lewis, New York Fed

Karel Mertens, Dallas Fed

James Stock, Harvard University

The WEI is an index of 10 weekly indicators of real economic activity, scaled to have the units of four-quarter percent change of real GDP.

• The WEI is currently -6.83 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ended July 4 and -7.66 percent for June 27; for reference, the WEI stood at 1.54 percent for the week ended February 29.
• Today’s increase in the WEI for the week of July 04 is driven by increases in electricity production and rail traffic (relative to the same time last year) and a small decrease in initial UI claims, which more than offset declines in fuel sales and tax withholdings. The WEI for the week of June 27 was revised downwards due to the continuing UI claims release, which provided a weaker signal than previously available data.
• As alternative scales, the current WEI implies a 25.29 percent decrease in IP (YoY) and a 944k employee decrease in nonfarm payroll. 
• Data dashboard and .release (.pdf)
• Historical data including recent release (.xlsx)

Weekly Economic Index (WEI)

July 2, 2020

 

Daniel Lewis, New York Fed

Karel Mertens, Dallas Fed

James Stock, Harvard University

The WEI is an index of 10 weekly indicators of real economic activity, scaled to have the units of four-quarter percent change of real GDP.

 

• The WEI is currently -7.44 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ended June 27 and -7.91 percent for June 20; for reference, the WEI stood at 1.54 percent for the week ended February 29.
• Today’s increase in the WEI for the week of June 27 is driven by increases in electricity output and fuel sales and a small decrease in initial UI claims, which more than offset decreases in tax withholdings and rail traffic relative to the same time last year. The WEI for the week of June 20 was revised downwards following a small decrease in continuing claims, since the release still provides a weaker signal than previously available data.
• As alternative scales, the current WEI implies a 27.11 percent decrease in IP (YoY) and a 1018k employee decrease in nonfarm payroll. 
• Data dashboard and .release (.pdf)
• Historical data including recent release (.xlsx)

Weekly Economic Index (WEI)

June 23, 2020

 

Daniel Lewis, New York Fed

Karel Mertens, Dallas Fed

James Stock, Harvard University

The WEI is an index of 10 weekly indicators of real economic activity, scaled to have the units of four-quarter percent change of real GDP.

 

• The WEI is currently -8.20 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ended June 20 and -7.74 percent for June 13; for reference, the WEI stood at 1.54 percent for the week ended February 29.
• Today’s decrease in the WEI for the week of June 20 is due to a decrease in consumer confidence, which more than offset increases in retail sales and steel production. We anticipate an upward revision on Thursday when data series that have recently provided more positive signals are available. The WEI for the week of June 13 was revised upward following an increase in the staffing index, which provided a more positive signal than previously available data.
• As alternative scales, the current WEI implies a 29.43 percent decrease in IP (YoY) and a 1112k employee decrease in nonfarm payroll. 
• Data dashboard and .release (.pdf)
• Historical data including recent release (.xlsx)

Weekly Economic Index (WEI)

June 18, 2020

 

Daniel Lewis, New York Fed

Karel Mertens, Dallas Fed

James Stock, Harvard University

The WEI is an index of 10 weekly indicators of real economic activity, scaled to have the units of four-quarter percent change of real GDP.

 

• The WEI is currently -8.39 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ended June 13 and -9.23 percent for June 06; for reference, the WEI stood at 1.54 percent for the week ended February 29.
• Today’s increase in the WEI for the week of June 13 was driven by increases in electricity output (the highest year-over-year gain since December), fuel sales, railroad traffic, and tax withholdings as well as a decrease in initial UI claims. The WEI for the week of June 6 was revised upwards due to the release of continuing UI claims, which provided a more positive signal than previously available data.
• As alternative scales, the current WEI implies a 29.98 percent decrease in IP (YoY) and a 1134k employee decrease in nonfarm payroll.
• Data dashboard and .release (.pdf)
• Historical data including recent release (.xlsx)