Thursday, January 21, 2021

 

Weekly Economic Index (WEI)

January 21 2021

 

Daniel Lewis, New York Fed
Karel Mertens, Dallas Fed
James Stock, Harvard University

The WEI is an index of 10 weekly indicators of real economic activity, scaled to have the units of four-quarter percent change of real GDP.

  • The WEI is currently -1.98 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ended January 16 and -1.67 percent for January 9; for reference, the WEI stood at 1.55 percent for the week ended February 29.
  • The decline in the WEI for the week of January 16 (relative to the final estimate for the week of January 9) is due to an increase in initial unemployment insurance claims (relative to the same time last year) and a decrease in tax withholding, which more than offset rises in retail sales, steel production, and rail traffic. The WEI for the week of January 9 was revised upward due to an increase in the staffing index, which more than offset a rise in continuing unemployment insurance claims (relative to the same time last year).
  • As alternative scales, the current WEI implies a 10.66 percent decrease in IP (YoY) and a 351k employee decrease in nonfarm payroll.
  • Data dashboard and .release (.pdf)
  • Historical data including recent release (.xlsx)
 
 

Thursday, January 14, 2021

 

Weekly Economic Index (WEI)

January 14 2021

 

Daniel Lewis, New York Fed
Karel Mertens, Dallas Fed
James Stock, Harvard University

The WEI is an index of 10 weekly indicators of real economic activity, scaled to have the units of four-quarter percent change of real GDP.


  •  The WEI is currently -1.70 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ended January 9 and -1.90 percent for January 2; for reference, the WEI stood at 1.55 percent for the week ended February 29.
  • The increase in the WEI for the week of January 9 is due to rises in tax withholding, fuel sales, and rail traffic, which more than offset an increase in initial unemployment insurance claims and a decrease in electricity output (relative to the same time last year). The WEI for the week of January 2 was revised downward due to an increase in continuing unemployment insurance claims.
  • As alternative scales, the current WEI implies a 9.81 percent decrease in IP (YoY) and a 317k employee decrease in nonfarm payroll.
  • Data dashboard and .release (.pdf)
  • Historical data including recent release (.xlsx)
 

Thursday, December 24, 2020

 

Weekly Economic Index (WEI)

December 24 2020

 

Daniel Lewis, New York Fed
Karel Mertens, Dallas Fed
James Stock, Harvard University

The WEI is an index of 10 weekly indicators of real economic activity, scaled to have the units of four-quarter percent change of real GDP.

  • The WEI is currently -2.21 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ended December 19 and -2.72 percent for December 12; for reference, the WEI stood at 1.55 percent for the week ended February 29.
  • The increase in the WEI for the week of December 19 is due to a decrease in initial unemployment insurance claims and rises in fuel sales and electricity output, which more than offset declines in tax withholding and rail traffic. The WEI for the week of December 12 was revised downward due to continuing unemployment insurance claims, which while lower than the prior week, still provided a more negative signal than previously available data.
  • As alternative scales, the current WEI implies an 11.34 percent decrease in IP (YoY) and a 379k employee decrease in nonfarm payroll.
  • Data dashboard and .release (.pdf)
  • Historical data including recent release (.xlsx)

 
 

Thursday, December 10, 2020

 

Weekly Economic Index (WEI)

December 10 2020

 

Daniel Lewis, New York Fed
Karel Mertens, Dallas Fed
James Stock, Harvard University

The WEI is an index of 10 weekly indicators of real economic activity, scaled to have the units of four-quarter percent change of real GDP.

  • The WEI is currently -2.39 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ended December 5 and -2.08 percent for November 28; for reference, the WEI stood at 1.55 percent for the week ended February 29.
  • The decline in the WEI for the week of December 5 is due to a decrease in fuel sales, which more than offset a decrease in initial unemployment insurance claims (relative to the same time last year) and rises in tax withholding, electricity output, and rail traffic. The WEI for the week of November 28 was revised downward due to continuing unemployment insurance claims, which while lower than the prior week, still provided a more negative signal than previously available data.
  • As alternative scales, the current WEI implies a 11.89 percent decrease in IP (YoY) and a 401k employee decrease in nonfarm payroll.
  • Data dashboard and .release (.pdf)
  • Historical data including recent release (.xlsx)
 
 
 
 

Thursday, December 3, 2020

 

Weekly Economic Index (WEI)

December 3 2020

 

Daniel Lewis, New York Fed
Karel Mertens, Dallas Fed
James Stock, Harvard University

The WEI is an index of 10 weekly indicators of real economic activity, scaled to have the units of four-quarter percent change of real GDP.

  • The WEI is currently -2.31 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ended November 28 and -2.87 percent for November 21; for reference, the WEI stood at 1.55 percent for the week ended February 29.
  • The increase in the WEI for the week of November 28 is due to a decrease in initial unemployment insurance claims and rises in tax withholding, fuel sales, and rail traffic (relative to the same time last year), which more than offset a decline in electricity output. The WEI for the week of November 21 was revised downward due to continuing unemployment insurance claims, which while lower than the prior week, still provided a more negative signal than previously available data.
  • As alternative scales, the current WEI implies a 11.67 percent decrease in IP (YoY) and a 392k employee decrease in nonfarm payroll.
  • Data dashboard and .release (.pdf)
  • Historical data including recent release (.xlsx)
 
 
 

Thursday, November 26, 2020

 

Weekly Economic Index (WEI)

November 25, 2020

 

Daniel Lewis, New York Fed
Karel Mertens, Dallas Fed
James Stock, Harvard University

The WEI is an index of 10 weekly indicators of real economic activity, scaled to have the units of four-quarter percent change of real GDP.

  • The WEI is currently -2.83 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ended November 21 and -3.00 percent for November 14; for reference, the WEI stood at 1.55 percent for the week ended February 29.
  • The increase in the WEI for the week of November 21 (relative to the final revision for the week of November 14) is due to a decrease in initial unemployment insurance claims (relative to the same time last year) and a rise in electricity output which more than offset declines in tax withholding, rail traffic, and fuel sales (relative to the same time last year). The WEI for the week of November 14 was revised downward due to continuing unemployment insurance claims, which while lower than the prior week, still provided a more negative signal than previously available data.
  • As alternative scales, the current WEI implies a 13.23 percent decrease in IP (YoY) and a 455k employee decrease in nonfarm payroll.
  • Data dashboard and .release (.pdf)
  • Historical data including recent release (.xlsx)
 
 
 

Tuesday, November 10, 2020

 

Weekly Economic Index (WEI)

November 10, 2020

 

Daniel Lewis, New York Fed
Karel Mertens, Dallas Fed
James Stock, Harvard University

The WEI is an index of 10 weekly indicators of real economic activity, scaled to have the units of four-quarter percent change of real GDP.


 
  • The WEI is currently -3.02 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ended November 7 and -2.50 percent for October 31; for reference, the WEI stood at 1.55 percent for the week ended February 29.
  • The decline in the WEI for the week of November 7 (relative to the second revision for the week of October 31) is due to declines in retail sales and consumer confidence, which more than offset an increase in raw steel production, as well as data series that have recently provided more positive signals not yet being available. The WEI for the week of October 31 was revised upward due to an increase in the staffing index.
  • As alternative scales, the current WEI implies a 13.8 percent decrease in IP (YoY) and a 478k employee decrease in nonfarm payroll.
  • Data dashboard and .release (.pdf)
  • Historical data including recent release (.xlsx)